Despite some shaky recent home form, Lille have lost just three of their last 36 home Ligue 1 games and have scored in 16 consecutive matches at the Pierre-Mauroy against their upcoming opponents, so will be the big favourites, especially after their midweek antics.
Toulouse have been way below par so far this season, and manager Martinez may start feeling the heat soon if results continue in this fashion, despite being awarded a new contract last month.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lille win with a probability of 49.37%. A win for Toulouse had a probability of 26.53% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lille win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.56%) and 2-0 (8.17%). The likeliest Toulouse win was 0-1 (6.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.35%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lille would win this match.
0.27) 
-0.06) 
