SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 53.49%. A win for Lille had a probability of 23.87% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.97%) and 2-0 (8.34%). The likeliest Lille win was 1-2 (6.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.5%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Lille |
53.49% ( 0.16) | 22.65% ( -0.44) | 23.87% ( 0.28) |
| Both teams to score 58.29% ( 1.85) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.42% ( 2.29) | 41.58% ( -2.29) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.02% ( 2.27) | 63.98% ( -2.27) |
| Sporting Lisbon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.45% ( 0.87) | 15.55% ( -0.87) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 55.51% ( 1.6) | 44.49% ( -1.6) |
| Lille Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.02% ( 1.49) | 30.98% ( -1.49) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.72% ( 1.71) | 67.28% ( -1.71) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Lille |
| 2-1 @ 9.78% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 8.97% ( -0.67)2-0 @ 8.34% ( -0.36)3-1 @ 6.07% ( 0.17)3-0 @ 5.18% ( -0.06)3-2 @ 3.55% ( 0.24)4-1 @ 2.82% ( 0.16)4-0 @ 2.41% ( 0.04)4-2 @ 1.65% ( 0.16)5-1 @ 1.05% ( 0.09)Other @ 3.67% Total : 53.49% | 1-1 @ 10.5% ( -0.33) 2-2 @ 5.73% ( 0.22)0-0 @ 4.82% ( -0.51)3-3 @ 1.39% ( 0.15)Other @ 0.21% Total : 22.64% | 1-2 @ 6.16% ( 0.06) 0-1 @ 5.65% ( -0.35)0-2 @ 3.31% ( -0.07)1-3 @ 2.41% ( 0.12)2-3 @ 2.24% ( 0.17)0-3 @ 1.29% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.82% Total : 23.87% |
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