Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajaccio win with a probability of 37.09%. A win for Toulouse had a probability of 33.45% and a draw had a probability of 29.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajaccio win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.49%) and 2-0 (7.18%). The likeliest Toulouse win was 0-1 (12.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.44%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Ajaccio in this match.