Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Caen win with a probability of 46.64%. A draw had a probability of 27.3% and a win for Bastia had a probability of 26.11%.
The most likely scoreline for a Caen win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.18%) and 2-1 (8.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.74%), while for a Bastia win it was 0-1 (9.21%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Caen would win this match.
-0.51) 
0.2) 
