Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Caen win with a probability of 36.63%. A win for Bastia had a probability of 34.45% and a draw had a probability of 28.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Caen win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.58%) and 0-2 (6.95%). The likeliest Bastia win was 1-0 (11.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.36%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.8% likelihood.
-0.5) 
0.05) 
