Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Caen win with a probability of 41.56%. A draw had a probability of 29.6% and a win for Bastia had a probability of 28.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Caen win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.45%) and 2-1 (7.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.31%), while for a Bastia win it was 0-1 (11.33%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Caen would win this match.
0.95) 
-0.58) 
