Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Caen win with a probability of 36.02%. A win for Bastia had a probability of 35.85% and a draw had a probability of 28.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Caen win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.71%) and 0-2 (6.62%). The likeliest Bastia win was 1-0 (11.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.2%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Caen would win this match.
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