Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Caen win with a probability of 43.92%. A win for Troyes had a probability of 28.9% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Caen win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.73%) and 2-0 (8.32%). The likeliest Troyes win was 0-1 (9.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.82%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood.
0.14) 
-0.21) 
