Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Paris FC win with a probability of 45.04%. A win for Metz had a probability of 27.89% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Paris FC win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.82%) and 2-0 (8.59%). The likeliest Metz win was 0-1 (9.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.76%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood.
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