Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bastia win with a probability of 37.79%. A win for Metz had a probability of 33.31% and a draw had a probability of 28.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bastia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.73%) and 2-0 (7.24%). The likeliest Metz win was 0-1 (11.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.35%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Bastia in this match.
2.11) 
-2.51) 
