Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Metz win with a probability of 43.8%. A win for Saint-Etienne had a probability of 30.05% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Metz win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.95%) and 2-0 (7.81%). The likeliest Saint-Etienne win was 0-1 (8.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.43%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Metz would win this match.
0.97) 
-0.23) 
