Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Caen win with a probability of 39.91%. A win for Saint-Etienne had a probability of 34.72% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Caen win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.65%) and 2-0 (6.51%). The likeliest Saint-Etienne win was 0-1 (8.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.98%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 8% likelihood.
0.01) 
-0.02) 
