Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Saint-Etienne win with a probability of 56.05%. A draw had a probability of 25% and a win for Valenciennes had a probability of 18.99%.
The most likely scoreline for a Saint-Etienne win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.44%) and 1-2 (9.33%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.64%), while for a Valenciennes win it was 1-0 (7.27%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 11.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Saint-Etienne would win this match.
0.14) 
-0.03) 
