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MLS Playoffs | MLS Cup Round One
Nov 2, 2024 at 9pm UK
Citi Field
FC

NY City
3 - 1
Cincinnati

Martinez (22'), Martins (40'), Rodriguez (90+7' pen.)
Rodriguez (53'), Sands (72')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Orellano (65')
Bucha (43'), Yedlin (56'), Kubo (68')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Cincinnati 1-0 NY City
Monday, October 28 at 10.45pm in Major League Soccer
Last Game: Cincinnati 1-0 NY City
Monday, October 28 at 10.45pm in Major League Soccer

We said: New York City FC 2-1 FC Cincinnati

NYCFC have plenty of experienced attacking players who can still make an impact, and we believe they will be decisive in this encounter, knowing that there may be no tomorrow. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 50.18%. A win for FC Cincinnati had a probability of 27.85% and a draw had a probability of 22%.

The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.77%) and 2-0 (6.6%). The likeliest FC Cincinnati win was 1-2 (6.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.55%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that New York City FC would win this match.

Result
New York City FCDrawFC Cincinnati
50.18% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01) 21.98% (0.11 0.11) 27.85% (-0.1 -0.1)
Both teams to score 64.83% (-0.496 -0.5)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
65.25% (-0.613 -0.61)34.75% (0.617 0.62)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
43.29% (-0.691 -0.69)56.71% (0.696 0.7)
New York City FC Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
85.77% (-0.21899999999999 -0.22)14.23% (0.223 0.22)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
58.03% (-0.43300000000001 -0.43)41.97% (0.437 0.44)
FC Cincinnati Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.59% (-0.381 -0.38)24.41% (0.385 0.39)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
41.16% (-0.542 -0.54)58.84% (0.546 0.55)
Score Analysis
    New York City FC 50.18%
    FC Cincinnati 27.85%
    Draw 21.98%
New York City FCDrawFC Cincinnati
2-1 @ 9.31% (0.040999999999999 0.04)
1-0 @ 6.77% (0.158 0.16)
2-0 @ 6.6% (0.102 0.1)
3-1 @ 6.05% (-0.022 -0.02)
3-0 @ 4.29% (0.033 0.03)
3-2 @ 4.27% (-0.064 -0.06)
4-1 @ 2.95% (-0.035 -0.04)
4-0 @ 2.09% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
4-2 @ 2.08% (-0.049 -0.05)
5-1 @ 1.15% (-0.023 -0.02)
4-3 @ 0.98% (-0.034 -0.03)
Other @ 3.62%
Total : 50.18%
1-1 @ 9.55% (0.118 0.12)
2-2 @ 6.57% (-0.045 -0.04)
0-0 @ 3.47% (0.108 0.11)
3-3 @ 2.01% (-0.053 -0.05)
Other @ 0.39%
Total : 21.98%
1-2 @ 6.73% (0.008 0.01)
0-1 @ 4.9% (0.099 0.1)
0-2 @ 3.45% (0.032 0.03)
1-3 @ 3.16% (-0.032 -0.03)
2-3 @ 3.09% (-0.056 -0.06)
0-3 @ 1.62% (-0.0029999999999999 -0)
1-4 @ 1.12% (-0.024 -0.02)
2-4 @ 1.09% (-0.032 -0.03)
Other @ 2.69%
Total : 27.85%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Cincinnati 1-0 NY City
Monday, October 28 at 10.45pm in Major League Soccer
Last Game: Montreal 2-0 NY City
Saturday, October 19 at 11pm in Major League Soccer
Last Game: NY City 3-1 Nashville
Sunday, October 6 at 9.25pm in Major League Soccer
Last Game: NY City 3-2 Cincinnati
Thursday, October 3 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer
Last Game: NY Red Bulls 1-5 NY City
Sunday, September 29 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer
Last Game: NY City 1-1 Inter Miami
Saturday, September 21 at 7pm in Major League Soccer
Last Game: Cincinnati 1-0 NY City
Monday, October 28 at 10.45pm in Major League Soccer
Last Game: Philadelphia 1-2 Cincinnati
Saturday, October 19 at 11pm in Major League Soccer
Last Game: Cincinnati 1-3 Orlando City
Sunday, October 6 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer
Last Game: NY City 3-2 Cincinnati
Thursday, October 3 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer
Last Game: Cincinnati 1-2 Los Angeles
Sunday, September 29 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer
Last Game: Nashville 2-2 Cincinnati
Sunday, September 22 at 1.30am in Major League Soccer


Sports Mole provides in-depth previews and predictions for every match from the biggest leagues and competitions in world football.
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