SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a CF Montreal win with a probability of 40.12%. A win for New York City FC had a probability of 35.57% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a CF Montreal win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.78%) and 2-0 (6.02%). The likeliest New York City FC win was 1-2 (8.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.22%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that CF Montreal would win this match.
| Result | ||
| CF Montreal | Draw | New York City FC |
40.12% ( 0.01) | 24.31% ( -0.02) | 35.57% ( 0.01) |
| Both teams to score 60.11% ( 0.06) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.44% ( 0.08) | 42.56% ( -0.08) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.04% ( 0.08) | 64.96% ( -0.08) |
| CF Montreal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.7% ( 0.04) | 21.3% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.76% ( 0.06) | 54.24% ( -0.06) |
| New York City FC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.38% ( 0.04) | 23.62% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.29% ( 0.06) | 57.71% ( -0.06) |
| Score Analysis |
| CF Montreal | Draw | New York City FC |
| 2-1 @ 8.68% 1-0 @ 7.78% ( -0.02)2-0 @ 6.02% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 4.48% ( 0)3-2 @ 3.23% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 3.1% 4-1 @ 1.73% ( 0)4-2 @ 1.25% ( 0)4-0 @ 1.2% ( 0)Other @ 2.66% Total : 40.12% | 1-1 @ 11.22% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 6.26% ( 0.01)0-0 @ 5.03% ( -0.02)3-3 @ 1.55% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.24% Total : 24.31% | 1-2 @ 8.1% ( 0) 0-1 @ 7.26% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 5.24% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 3.9% ( 0)2-3 @ 3.01% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 2.52% 1-4 @ 1.41% ( 0)2-4 @ 1.09% ( 0)0-4 @ 0.91% ( 0)Other @ 2.14% Total : 35.57% |
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