SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 46.76%. A win for FC Cincinnati had a probability of 30.42% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.1%) and 2-0 (6.44%). The likeliest FC Cincinnati win was 1-2 (7.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.12%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that New York City FC would win this match.
| Result | ||
| New York City FC | Draw | FC Cincinnati |
46.76% ( -0.02) | 22.82% ( 0.01) | 30.42% ( 0.01) |
| Both teams to score 63.61% ( -0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 62.86% ( -0.02) | 37.14% ( 0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 40.66% ( -0.02) | 59.34% ( 0.02) |
| New York City FC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.7% ( -0.01) | 16.3% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 54.13% ( -0.02) | 45.87% ( 0.02) |
| FC Cincinnati Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76% | 24% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.75% | 58.25% |
| Score Analysis |
| New York City FC | Draw | FC Cincinnati |
| 2-1 @ 9.19% ( -0) 1-0 @ 7.1% ( 0)2-0 @ 6.44% ( -0)3-1 @ 5.55% ( -0)3-2 @ 3.96% ( -0)3-0 @ 3.89% ( -0)4-1 @ 2.52% ( -0)4-2 @ 1.8% ( -0)4-0 @ 1.77% ( -0)5-1 @ 0.91% ( -0)Other @ 3.64% Total : 46.76% | 1-1 @ 10.12% 2-2 @ 6.56% 0-0 @ 3.91% ( 0)3-3 @ 1.89% ( -0)Other @ 0.34% Total : 22.81% | 1-2 @ 7.23% ( 0) 0-1 @ 5.58% ( 0)0-2 @ 3.98% ( 0)1-3 @ 3.44% ( 0)2-3 @ 3.12% 0-3 @ 1.9% ( 0)1-4 @ 1.23% ( 0)2-4 @ 1.11% Other @ 2.84% Total : 30.42% |
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