SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Cincinnati win with a probability of 54.86%. A win for New York City FC had a probability of 23.1% and a draw had a probability of 22%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Cincinnati win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.53%) and 2-0 (8.26%). The likeliest New York City FC win was 1-2 (6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.11%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that FC Cincinnati would win this match.
| Result | ||
| FC Cincinnati | Draw | New York City FC |
54.86% ( 2.25) | 22.04% ( -0.41) | 23.1% ( -1.84) |
| Both teams to score 59.45% ( -0.75) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.39% ( -0.01) | 39.61% ( 0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.04% ( -0.01) | 61.96% ( 0.01) |
| FC Cincinnati Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.59% ( 0.74) | 14.41% ( -0.74) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 57.67% ( 1.41) | 42.33% ( -1.41) |
| New York City FC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.46% ( -1.5) | 30.54% ( 1.5) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.24% ( -1.81) | 66.76% ( 1.81) |
| Score Analysis |
| FC Cincinnati | Draw | New York City FC |
| 2-1 @ 9.8% ( 0.11) 1-0 @ 8.53% ( 0.22)2-0 @ 8.26% ( 0.42)3-1 @ 6.33% ( 0.23)3-0 @ 5.33% ( 0.4)3-2 @ 3.75% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 3.06% ( 0.19)4-0 @ 2.58% ( 0.26)4-2 @ 1.82% ( 0.04)5-1 @ 1.19% ( 0.1)5-0 @ 1% ( 0.12)Other @ 3.22% Total : 54.86% | 1-1 @ 10.11% ( -0.15) 2-2 @ 5.81% ( -0.18)0-0 @ 4.4% ( 0)3-3 @ 1.48% ( -0.07)Other @ 0.23% Total : 22.04% | 1-2 @ 6% ( -0.35) 0-1 @ 5.22% ( -0.22)0-2 @ 3.1% ( -0.27)1-3 @ 2.37% ( -0.25)2-3 @ 2.3% ( -0.17)0-3 @ 1.22% ( -0.16)Other @ 2.9% Total : 23.1% |
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