SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Cincinnati win with a probability of 54.39%. A draw had a probability of 24.8% and a win for New York City FC had a probability of 20.85%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Cincinnati win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.55%) and 2-1 (9.51%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.71%), while for a New York City FC win it was 0-1 (7.21%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that FC Cincinnati would win this match.
| Result | ||
| FC Cincinnati | Draw | New York City FC |
54.39% ( -1.38) | 24.77% ( 0.54) | 20.85% ( 0.84) |
| Both teams to score 47.7% ( -0.35) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.28% ( -1.1) | 53.72% ( 1.1) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.8% ( -0.93) | 75.2% ( 0.94) |
| FC Cincinnati Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.3% ( -0.95) | 19.7% ( 0.96) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 48.29% ( -1.58) | 51.71% ( 1.58) |
| New York City FC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.41% ( 0.27) | 40.6% ( -0.26) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 22.81% ( 0.24) | 77.2% ( -0.23) |
| Score Analysis |
| FC Cincinnati | Draw | New York City FC |
| 1-0 @ 12.99% ( 0.17) 2-0 @ 10.55% ( -0.18)2-1 @ 9.51% ( -0.09)3-0 @ 5.71% ( -0.28)3-1 @ 5.15% ( -0.21)3-2 @ 2.32% ( -0.08)4-0 @ 2.32% ( -0.19)4-1 @ 2.09% ( -0.15)4-2 @ 0.94% ( -0.06)Other @ 2.78% Total : 54.38% | 1-1 @ 11.71% ( 0.24) 0-0 @ 8% ( 0.34)2-2 @ 4.29% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.77% Total : 24.76% | 0-1 @ 7.21% ( 0.36) 1-2 @ 5.28% ( 0.14)0-2 @ 3.25% ( 0.18)1-3 @ 1.59% ( 0.05)2-3 @ 1.29% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 0.98% ( 0.06)Other @ 1.26% Total : 20.85% |
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