SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 8 | Toronto | 28 | -5 | 33 |
| 9 | Atlanta United | 26 | -1 | 30 |
| 10 | Chicago Fire | 27 | -10 | 30 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 8 | Sporting Kansas City | 28 | -14 | 29 |
| 9 | Houston Dynamo | 27 | -12 | 26 |
| 10 | DC United | 26 | -28 | 22 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atlanta United win with a probability of 63.3%. A draw had a probability of 19.9% and a win for DC United had a probability of 16.82%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atlanta United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.79%) and 1-0 (9.13%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.23%), while for a DC United win it was 1-2 (4.67%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atlanta United would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Atlanta United | Draw | DC United |
63.3% ( -0.15) | 19.88% ( 0.15) | 16.82% ( 0) |
| Both teams to score 56.19% ( -0.55) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.11% ( -0.72) | 38.88% ( 0.71) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.8% ( -0.76) | 61.19% ( 0.75) |
| Atlanta United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.3% ( -0.25) | 11.69% ( 0.25) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 63.21% ( -0.55) | 36.79% ( 0.54) |
| DC United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.63% ( -0.44) | 36.37% ( 0.43) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.84% ( -0.44) | 73.15% ( 0.44) |
| Score Analysis |
| Atlanta United | Draw | DC United |
| 2-1 @ 9.91% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 9.79% ( 0.13)1-0 @ 9.13% ( 0.21)3-1 @ 7.09% ( -0.06)3-0 @ 7.01% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 3.8% ( -0.07)4-0 @ 3.76% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 3.58% ( -0.07)4-2 @ 1.92% ( -0.06)5-1 @ 1.63% ( -0.05)5-0 @ 1.61% ( -0.03)Other @ 4.06% Total : 63.3% | 1-1 @ 9.23% ( 0.11) 2-2 @ 5.01% ( -0.05)0-0 @ 4.25% ( 0.14)3-3 @ 1.21% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.18% Total : 19.88% | 1-2 @ 4.67% 0-1 @ 4.3% ( 0.09)0-2 @ 2.18% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 1.69% ( -0.04)1-3 @ 1.57% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.41% Total : 16.82% |
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