The California heat should favour the home team, as New York might have to reduce the amount of pressing they do in that warm weather, while the Black and Gold are accustomed to playing in those conditions and have not been shut out of a regular-season home fixture all year. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Los Angeles FC win with a probability of 50.95%. A win for New York Red Bulls had a probability of 25.64% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Los Angeles FC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.2%) and 2-0 (8.13%). The likeliest New York Red Bulls win was 1-2 (6.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.93%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Los Angeles FC would win this match.

Result
Los Angeles FC	Draw	New York Red Bulls
50.95% ( 0.13)	23.4% ( -0.1)	25.64% ( -0.03)

Both teams to score 57.64% (

0.32)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

56.67% (

0.44)

43.33% (

-0.44)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

34.27% (

0.43)

65.73% (

-0.43)

Los Angeles FC Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.92% (

0.21)

17.08% (

-0.21)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

52.73% (

0.37)

47.26% (

-0.37)

New York Red Bulls Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.51% (

0.21)

30.48% (

-0.21)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.3% (

0.24)

66.7% (

-0.25)

Score Analysis

Los Angeles FC 50.95%

New York Red Bulls 25.64%

Draw 23.4%

Los Angeles FC	Draw	New York Red Bulls
2-1 @ 9.66% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 9.2% ( -0.11) 2-0 @ 8.13% ( -0.04) 3-1 @ 5.69% ( 0.04) 3-0 @ 4.79% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 3.38% ( 0.04) 4-1 @ 2.51% ( 0.04) 4-0 @ 2.12% ( 0.02) 4-2 @ 1.49% ( 0.03) Other @ 3.98% Total : 50.95%	1-1 @ 10.93% ( -0.07) 2-2 @ 5.74% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 5.21% ( -0.1) 3-3 @ 1.34% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.19% Total : 23.4%	1-2 @ 6.49% ( -0) 0-1 @ 6.19% ( -0.08) 0-2 @ 3.67% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 2.57% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 2.27% ( 0.03) 0-3 @ 1.46% ( -0) Other @ 2.99% Total : 25.64%