It will take longer than a few weeks to fix the defensive issues plaguing TFC, so expect another long afternoon for the Reds, who have conceded plenty of goals at Red Bull Arena. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York Red Bulls win with a probability of 60.5%. A draw had a probability of 22% and a win for Toronto had a probability of 17.49%.

The most likely scoreline for a New York Red Bulls win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.94%) and 2-1 (9.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.46%), while for a Toronto win it was 0-1 (5.55%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that New York Red Bulls would win this match.

Result
New York Red Bulls	Draw	Toronto
60.5% ( -0.11)	22.01% ( 0.05)	17.49% ( 0.07)

Both teams to score 50.41% (

-0.04)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

52.77% (

-0.12)

47.23% (

0.12)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

30.54% (

-0.11)

69.46% (

0.11)

New York Red Bulls Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.84% (

-0.07)

15.17% (

0.08)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

56.23% (

-0.14)

43.77% (

0.15)

Toronto Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

59.42% (

0.01)

40.59%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

22.82% (

0.01)

77.19% (

Score Analysis

New York Red Bulls 60.49%

Toronto 17.49%

Draw 22%

New York Red Bulls	Draw	Toronto
1-0 @ 11.6% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 10.94% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 9.87% ( -0) 3-0 @ 6.88% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 6.21% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 3.25% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 2.93% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 2.8% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.32% ( -0.01) 5-0 @ 1.23% ( -0.01) 5-1 @ 1.1% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.36% Total : 60.49%	1-1 @ 10.46% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 6.15% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 4.45% ( -0) Other @ 0.94% Total : 22%	0-1 @ 5.55% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 4.72% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 2.5% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 1.42% ( 0) 2-3 @ 1.34% Other @ 1.96% Total : 17.49%