Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York Red Bulls win with a probability of 58.18%. A draw had a probability of 24.3% and a win for Chicago Fire had a probability of 17.52%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York Red Bulls win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.97%) and 2-1 (9.36%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.31%), while for a Chicago Fire win it was 0-1 (6.84%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood.
0.19) 
-0.05) 
