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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Los Angeles FC win with a probability of 75.89%. A draw had a probability of 14% and a win for St Louis City had a probability of 10.15%.
The most likely scoreline for a Los Angeles FC win was 2-0 with a probability of 8.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.58%) and 3-0 (8.26%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.97%), while for a St Louis City win it was 1-2 (2.97%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Los Angeles FC would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Los Angeles FC | Draw | St Louis City |
75.89% ( -0.45) | 13.96% ( 0.01) | 10.15% ( 0.44) |
| Both teams to score 59.46% ( 1.98) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 74.2% ( 1.47) | 25.8% ( -1.47) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 54.04% ( 1.88) | 45.96% ( -1.87) |
| Los Angeles FC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 94.35% ( 0.24) | 5.65% ( -0.24) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 78.11% ( 0.67) | 21.88% ( -0.67) |
| St Louis City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.02% ( 1.94) | 36.98% ( -1.94) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.23% ( 1.88) | 73.76% ( -1.88) |
| Score Analysis |
| Los Angeles FC | Draw | St Louis City |
| 2-0 @ 8.63% ( -0.56) 2-1 @ 8.58% ( -0.09)3-0 @ 8.26% ( -0.41)3-1 @ 8.22% ( 0.03)1-0 @ 6% ( -0.49)4-0 @ 5.94% ( -0.21)4-1 @ 5.91% ( 0.11)3-2 @ 4.09% ( 0.22)5-0 @ 3.41% ( -0.07)5-1 @ 3.39% ( 0.11)4-2 @ 2.94% ( 0.2)5-2 @ 1.69% ( 0.14)6-0 @ 1.63% ( -0.01)6-1 @ 1.63% ( 0.07)4-3 @ 0.97% ( 0.11)Other @ 4.61% Total : 75.89% | 1-1 @ 5.97% ( -0.15) 2-2 @ 4.27% ( 0.18)0-0 @ 2.09% ( -0.2)3-3 @ 1.36% ( 0.14)Other @ 0.27% Total : 13.96% | 1-2 @ 2.97% ( 0.08) 0-1 @ 2.08% ( -0.08)2-3 @ 1.42% ( 0.13)0-2 @ 1.03% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 0.99% ( 0.08)Other @ 1.67% Total : 10.15% |
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