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Major League Soccer | Gameweek 18
Jul 23, 2021 at 1.25am UK
Florida Citrus Bowl
PU

Orlando City
2 - 1
Philadelphia

Michel (10'), Perea (59')
Pereyra (45'), Michel (78')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Przybylko (68')
Santos (56')

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Orlando City win with a probability of 40.39%. A win for Philadelphia Union had a probability of 34.45% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Orlando City win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.72%) and 2-0 (6.51%). The likeliest Philadelphia Union win was 0-1 (8.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.85%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Orlando City would win this match.

Result
Orlando CityDrawPhiladelphia Union
40.39%25.15%34.45%
Both teams to score 56.89%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
53.35%46.65%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
31.09%68.91%
Orlando City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.05%22.95%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
43.28%56.72%
Philadelphia Union Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.83%26.17%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
38.75%61.25%
Score Analysis
    Orlando City 40.39%
    Philadelphia Union 34.45%
    Draw 25.15%
Orlando CityDrawPhiladelphia Union
1-0 @ 8.84%
2-1 @ 8.72%
2-0 @ 6.51%
3-1 @ 4.28%
3-0 @ 3.19%
3-2 @ 2.87%
4-1 @ 1.58%
4-0 @ 1.18%
4-2 @ 1.06%
Other @ 2.18%
Total : 40.39%
1-1 @ 11.85%
0-0 @ 6.01%
2-2 @ 5.85%
3-3 @ 1.28%
Other @ 0.17%
Total : 25.15%
0-1 @ 8.05%
1-2 @ 7.94%
0-2 @ 5.4%
1-3 @ 3.55%
2-3 @ 2.61%
0-3 @ 2.41%
1-4 @ 1.19%
Other @ 3.3%
Total : 34.45%

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