This is a tough match to call, as each side has found another gear in the playoffs, and they both possess plenty of quality in the final third, but the Timbers get a slight edge, having been to this point before, so they are unlikely to be overwhelmed by the moment, plus they will have the home crowd behind them.
Portland are also looking a little sharper in all facets of the game, and their depth and quick counter-attacking play should be enough to help them claim their second MLS title.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portland Timbers win with a probability of 40.98%. A win for New York City FC had a probability of 34.35% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Portland Timbers win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.36%) and 2-0 (6.38%). The likeliest New York City FC win was 1-2 (7.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.52%).
