Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toronto win with a probability of 50.59%. A win for Philadelphia Union had a probability of 25.27% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toronto win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.62%) and 2-0 (8.61%). The likeliest Philadelphia Union win was 0-1 (6.79%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.42%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Toronto would win this match.