Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chorley win with a probability of 56.65%. A draw had a probability of 22.8% and a win for Hereford United had a probability of 20.54%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chorley win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.88%) and 2-0 (9.84%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.81%), while for a Hereford United win it was 0-1 (5.93%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Chorley would win this match.
