Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Curzon Ashton win with a probability of 41.93%. A win for Chester FC had a probability of 33.1% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Curzon Ashton win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.9%) and 2-0 (6.75%). The likeliest Chester FC win was 0-1 (7.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.74%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Curzon Ashton would win this match.