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National League South | Gameweek 24
Dec 23, 2023 at 3pm UK
Melbourne Cricket Ground
TU

Chelmsford City
2 - 0
Torquay Utd

Jenkins (3'), Barbrook (84')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Coverage of the National League South clash between Chelmsford City and Torquay United.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: St Albans City 2-1 Chelmsford City
Saturday, December 16 at 3pm in National League South
Last Game: Torquay Utd 3-2 Hemel Hemps.
Saturday, December 16 at 3pm in National League South

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chelmsford City win with a probability of 42.73%. A win for Torquay United had a probability of 32.39% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Chelmsford City win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.95%) and 2-0 (6.87%). The likeliest Torquay United win was 1-2 (7.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.69%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Chelmsford City would win this match.

Result
Chelmsford CityDrawTorquay United
42.73% (-0.105 -0.11) 24.87% (0.091000000000001 0.09) 32.39% (0.012 0.01)
Both teams to score 57.25% (-0.31 -0.31)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
54.09% (-0.41 -0.41)45.91% (0.41 0.41)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
31.78% (-0.389 -0.39)68.22% (0.389 0.39)
Chelmsford City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.49% (-0.221 -0.22)21.51% (0.221 0.22)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
45.44% (-0.343 -0.34)54.56% (0.342 0.34)
Torquay United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.93% (-0.191 -0.19)27.07% (0.19 0.19)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
37.56% (-0.251 -0.25)62.44% (0.251 0.25)
Score Analysis
    Chelmsford City 42.73%
    Torquay United 32.4%
    Draw 24.87%
Chelmsford CityDrawTorquay United
2-1 @ 8.98% (-0.012 -0.01)
1-0 @ 8.95% (0.095999999999998 0.1)
2-0 @ 6.87% (0.026999999999999 0.03)
3-1 @ 4.6% (-0.037 -0.04)
3-0 @ 3.52% (-0.01 -0.01)
3-2 @ 3.01% (-0.041 -0.04)
4-1 @ 1.77% (-0.026 -0.03)
4-0 @ 1.35% (-0.013 -0.01)
4-2 @ 1.16% (-0.024 -0.02)
Other @ 2.52%
Total : 42.73%
1-1 @ 11.69% (0.059999999999999 0.06)
2-2 @ 5.87% (-0.04 -0.04)
0-0 @ 5.82% (0.101 0.1)
3-3 @ 1.31% (-0.025 -0.02)
Other @ 0.18%
Total : 24.87%
1-2 @ 7.64% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
0-1 @ 7.61% (0.090999999999999 0.09)
0-2 @ 4.97% (0.033 0.03)
1-3 @ 3.33% (-0.018 -0.02)
2-3 @ 2.56% (-0.031 -0.03)
0-3 @ 2.17% (0.0020000000000002 0)
1-4 @ 1.09% (-0.012 -0.01)
Other @ 3.04%
Total : 32.4%

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Form Guide
Last Game: St Albans City 2-1 Chelmsford City
Saturday, December 16 at 3pm in National League South
Last Game: Bath City 2-3 Chelmsford City
Saturday, December 2 at 3pm in National League South
Last Game: Chelmsford City 1-2 Truro City
Saturday, November 25 at 3pm in National League South
Last Game: Chelmsford City 0-1 Maidstone
Monday, November 20 at 7.45pm in National League South
Last Game: Aveley 1-2 Chelmsford City
Monday, November 13 at 7.45pm in National League South
Last Game: Chelmsford City 2-2 Chippenham
Saturday, November 11 at 3pm in National League South
Last Game: Torquay Utd 3-2 Hemel Hemps.
Saturday, December 16 at 3pm in National League South
Last Game: Torquay Utd 3-1 Weymouth
Tuesday, December 5 at 7.45pm in National League South
Last Game: Torquay Utd 2-1 Tonbridge Angels
Saturday, December 2 at 3pm in National League South
Last Game: Eastbourne 1-4 Torquay Utd
Tuesday, November 28 at 7.45pm in National League South
Last Game: Dartford 3-0 Torquay Utd
Saturday, November 25 at 3pm in National League South
Last Game: Havant & W'ville 0-2 Torquay Utd
Saturday, November 11 at 3pm in National League South


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