SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Oxford City win with a probability of 62.17%. A draw had a probability of 20.6% and a win for Dover Athletic had a probability of 17.23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Oxford City win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.95%) and 1-0 (9.85%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.68%), while for a Dover Athletic win it was 1-2 (4.75%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Oxford City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Oxford City | Draw | Dover Athletic |
62.17% ( -6.83) | 20.6% ( 2.3) | 17.23% ( 4.53) |
| Both teams to score 54.54% ( 3.58) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.53% ( -1.01) | 41.46% ( 1.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.13% ( -1.03) | 63.86% ( 1.03) |
| Oxford City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.21% ( -2.15) | 12.79% ( 2.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 60.9% ( -4.6) | 39.1% ( 4.6) |
| Dover Athletic Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.55% ( 5.51) | 37.45% ( -5.51) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.77% ( 5.03) | 74.23% ( -5.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| Oxford City | Draw | Dover Athletic |
| 2-0 @ 10.12% ( -1.35) 2-1 @ 9.95% ( 0.25)1-0 @ 9.85% ( -0.39)3-0 @ 6.94% ( -1.63)3-1 @ 6.82% ( -0.42)4-0 @ 3.57% ( -1.23)4-1 @ 3.51% ( -0.55)3-2 @ 3.35% ( 0.29)4-2 @ 1.72% ( 0.01)5-0 @ 1.47% ( -0.68)5-1 @ 1.44% ( -0.37)Other @ 3.43% Total : 62.16% | 1-1 @ 9.68% ( 1.02) 2-2 @ 4.89% ( 0.79)0-0 @ 4.79% ( 0.22)3-3 @ 1.1% ( 0.24)Other @ 0.15% Total : 20.6% | 1-2 @ 4.75% ( 1.1) 0-1 @ 4.71% ( 0.84)0-2 @ 2.31% ( 0.68)2-3 @ 1.6% ( 0.45)1-3 @ 1.56% ( 0.53)Other @ 2.31% Total : 17.23% |
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