SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fleetwood Town win with a probability of 41.81%. A win for Oxford City had a probability of 33.6% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fleetwood Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.41%) and 2-0 (6.51%). The likeliest Oxford City win was 1-2 (7.83%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.47%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Fleetwood Town would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Fleetwood Town | Draw | Oxford City |
41.81% ( -0.03) | 24.59% ( -0.01) | 33.6% ( 0.05) |
| Both teams to score 58.64% ( 0.06) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.72% ( 0.07) | 44.28% ( -0.07) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.34% ( 0.07) | 66.66% ( -0.06) |
| Fleetwood Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.75% ( 0.01) | 21.24% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.85% ( 0.02) | 54.15% ( -0.02) |
| Oxford City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.45% ( 0.06) | 25.55% ( -0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.59% ( 0.08) | 60.41% ( -0.08) |
| Score Analysis |
| Fleetwood Town | Draw | Oxford City |
| 2-1 @ 8.89% ( -0) 1-0 @ 8.41% ( -0.02)2-0 @ 6.51% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 4.59% 3-0 @ 3.36% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 3.13% ( 0)4-1 @ 1.78% 4-0 @ 1.3% ( -0)4-2 @ 1.21% ( 0)Other @ 2.63% Total : 41.81% | 1-1 @ 11.47% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 6.06% ( 0.01)0-0 @ 5.43% ( -0.02)3-3 @ 1.42% ( 0)Other @ 0.21% Total : 24.59% | 1-2 @ 7.83% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 7.41% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 5.05% ( 0)1-3 @ 3.56% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 2.76% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 2.3% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 1.22% ( 0.01)2-4 @ 0.94% ( 0)Other @ 2.54% Total : 33.6% |
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