Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hartlepool United win with a probability of 59.19%. A draw had a probability of 21.8% and a win for Oxford City had a probability of 18.97%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hartlepool United win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.03%) and 2-1 (9.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.32%), while for a Oxford City win it was 0-1 (5.36%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Hartlepool United would win this match.
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