Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a York City win with a probability of 57.48%. A draw had a probability of 22.7% and a win for Ebbsfleet had a probability of 19.81%.
The most likely scoreline for a York City win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.12%) and 2-1 (9.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.78%), while for a Ebbsfleet win it was 0-1 (5.89%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that York City would win this match.
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