Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a York City win with a probability of 47.1%. A win for Ebbsfleet had a probability of 29.42% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a York City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.09%) and 2-0 (7.03%). The likeliest Ebbsfleet win was 1-2 (7.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.75%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.8% likelihood.
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