SM
| Current League D2 Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Estonia | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Malta | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | San Marino | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Current League D2 Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Estonia | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Malta | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | San Marino | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estonia win with a probability of 38.66%. A win for Malta had a probability of 35.6% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Estonia win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.48%) and 2-0 (6.41%). The likeliest Malta win was 0-1 (8.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.2%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Estonia would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Estonia | Draw | Malta |
38.66% ( 0.07) | 25.74% | 35.6% ( -0.07) |
| Both teams to score 55.07% ( 0) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.93% ( 0) | 49.07% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.85% ( 0) | 71.15% |
| Estonia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.07% ( 0.04) | 24.93% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.44% ( 0.05) | 59.56% ( -0.05) |
| Malta Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.36% ( -0.03) | 26.64% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.12% ( -0.05) | 61.88% ( 0.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| Estonia | Draw | Malta |
| 1-0 @ 9.23% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 8.48% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 6.41% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 3.93% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 2.97% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 2.6% ( 0)4-1 @ 1.36% ( 0)4-0 @ 1.03% ( 0)4-2 @ 0.9% ( 0)Other @ 1.77% Total : 38.66% | 1-1 @ 12.2% 0-0 @ 6.64% 2-2 @ 5.61% 3-3 @ 1.15% Other @ 0.14% Total : 25.73% | 0-1 @ 8.78% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 8.07% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 5.81% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 3.56% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 2.56% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2.47% ( -0)1-4 @ 1.18% ( -0)Other @ 3.17% Total : 35.6% |
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