It really is difficult to separate these two sides as both the world rankings and Thursday's first leg show. We think that it could go all the way to extra time and possibly even penalties, but are backing Cyprus to make their home advantage count and relegate Estonia. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cyprus win with a probability of 38.79%. A win for Estonia had a probability of 34.52% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Cyprus win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.36%) and 2-0 (6.81%). The likeliest Estonia win was 0-1 (9.63%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.69%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Cyprus would win this match.

Result
Cyprus	Draw	Estonia
38.79%	26.69%	34.52%

Both teams to score 51.77%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

46.77%

53.22%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

25.21%

74.79%

Cyprus Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.23%

26.77%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

37.95%

62.05%

Estonia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.69%

29.3%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.72%

65.27%

Score Analysis

Cyprus 38.78%

Estonia 34.52%

Draw 26.69%

Cyprus	Draw	Estonia
1-0 @ 10.33% 2-1 @ 8.36% 2-0 @ 6.81% 3-1 @ 3.67% 3-0 @ 2.99% 3-2 @ 2.25% 4-1 @ 1.21% 4-0 @ 0.99% Other @ 2.16% Total : 38.78%	1-1 @ 12.69% 0-0 @ 7.85% 2-2 @ 5.13% 3-3 @ 0.92% Other @ 0.1% Total : 26.69%	0-1 @ 9.63% 1-2 @ 7.79% 0-2 @ 5.91% 1-3 @ 3.19% 0-3 @ 2.42% 2-3 @ 2.1% 1-4 @ 0.98% Other @ 2.51% Total : 34.52%