Southgate's choice to go with an experimental XI did not pay dividends in Budapest, but there are several big-hitters ready and waiting to ensure England can return to scoring ways against a Germany defence that is far from impenetrable. An increase in ruthlessness could have seen Germany enter this contest with three points instead of one, but rival turf has not been kind to England in the Nations League, and we do not expect Southgate to inspire a turnaround in fortunes after only 72 hours. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Germany win with a probability of 48.22%. A win for England had a probability of 27.09% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Germany win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.45%) and 2-0 (8.23%). The likeliest England win was 0-1 (7.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.7%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.7% likelihood.

Result
Germany	Draw	England
48.22% ( 0.03)	24.69% ( 0.01)	27.09% ( -0.04)

Both teams to score 54.68% (

-0.05)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

52.15% (

-0.06)

47.85% (

0.06)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

29.97% (

-0.05)

70.03% (

0.05)

Germany Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.11% (

-0.01)

19.89% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

47.99% (

-0.02)

52.01% (

0.02)

England Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.26% (

-0.06)

31.74% (

0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

31.83% (

-0.06)

68.16% (

0.07)

Score Analysis

Germany 48.22%

England 27.09%

Draw 24.69%

Germany	Draw	England
1-0 @ 10.19% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 9.45% 2-0 @ 8.23% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 5.09% ( -0) 3-0 @ 4.43% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.92% ( -0) 4-1 @ 2.05% ( -0) 4-0 @ 1.79% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.18% ( -0) Other @ 2.89% Total : 48.22%	1-1 @ 11.7% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 6.31% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 5.42% ( -0.01) 3-3 @ 1.12% ( -0) Other @ 0.14% Total : 24.69%	0-1 @ 7.25% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 6.71% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 4.16% ( -0) 1-3 @ 2.57% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 2.07% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 1.59% ( -0) Other @ 2.74% Total : 27.09%