SM
| Current League A3 Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Italy | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| 2 | Hungary | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Germany | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | England | 3 | -1 | 2 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Germany win with a probability of 45.95%. A draw had a probability of 27.4% and a win for Italy had a probability of 26.69%.
The most likely scoreline for a Germany win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9%) and 2-1 (8.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.8%), while for a Italy win it was 0-1 (9.35%). The actual scoreline of 5-2 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Germany would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Germany | Draw | Italy |
45.95% ( 0.04) | 27.36% ( 0.01) | 26.69% ( -0.05) |
| Both teams to score 46.43% ( -0.06) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.55% ( -0.07) | 58.44% ( 0.07) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.96% ( -0.05) | 79.04% ( 0.05) |
| Germany Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.58% ( -0.01) | 25.42% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.77% ( -0.02) | 60.23% ( 0.02) |
| Italy Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.25% ( -0.08) | 37.75% ( 0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.47% ( -0.07) | 74.53% ( 0.08) |
| Score Analysis |
| Germany | Draw | Italy |
| 1-0 @ 13.14% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 9% ( 0.02)2-1 @ 8.77% ( -0)3-0 @ 4.11% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 4% ( -0)3-2 @ 1.95% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 1.41% ( 0)4-1 @ 1.37% ( -0)Other @ 2.19% Total : 45.94% | 1-1 @ 12.8% 0-0 @ 9.6% ( 0.03)2-2 @ 4.27% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.69% Total : 27.36% | 0-1 @ 9.35% ( 0) 1-2 @ 6.24% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 4.55% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 2.03% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 1.48% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.39% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.67% Total : 26.69% |
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