Persistent overachievers, Hungary are buoyed by their first competitive win over Germany since the 1954 World Cup, and fear no national side after their recent exploits. Injury-hit Italy remain a squad needing a post-Euros overhaul, and will fall short of the win required to reach the Nations League finals. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Italy win with a probability of 48.33%. A win for Hungary had a probability of 26.21% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Italy win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.34%) and 0-2 (8.77%). The likeliest Hungary win was 1-0 (7.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.11%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Italy would win this match.

Result
Hungary	Draw	Italy
26.21% ( 0.06)	25.46% ( 0.02)	48.33% ( -0.07)

Both teams to score 51.52% (

-0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.35% (

-0.03)

51.65% (

0.04)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.56% (

-0.03)

73.43% (

0.03)

Hungary Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.53% (

0.03)

34.47% (

-0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

28.82% (

0.03)

71.18% (

-0.03)

Italy Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.61% (

-0.04)

21.38% (

0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

45.63% (

-0.07)

54.37% (

0.07)

Score Analysis

Hungary 26.21%

Italy 48.32%

Draw 25.46%

Hungary	Draw	Italy
1-0 @ 7.85% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 6.45% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 4.18% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 2.29% ( 0) 3-2 @ 1.77% ( 0) 3-0 @ 1.49% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.18% Total : 26.21%	1-1 @ 12.11% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 7.37% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 4.97% 3-3 @ 0.91% ( -0) Other @ 0.1% Total : 25.46%	0-1 @ 11.36% 1-2 @ 9.34% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 8.77% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 4.8% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 4.51% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 2.56% ( -0) 1-4 @ 1.85% ( -0.01) 0-4 @ 1.74% ( -0.01) 2-4 @ 0.99% ( -0) Other @ 2.4% Total : 48.32%