In spite of its high profile as a standalone fixture, this clash could peter out into a low-scoring draw due to the surrounding circumstances. Both teams are already through to the quarter-finals - and Italy are in pole position to top Group 2 - so avoiding injury will be upmost in some players' minds before heading back to club football. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Italy win with a probability of 45.69%. A win for France has a probability of 29.2% and a draw has a probability of 25.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Italy win is 1-0 with a probability of 10%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (9.24%) and 2-0 (7.76%). The likeliest France win is 0-1 (7.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (11.9%).

Result
Italy	Draw	France
45.69% ( -0.05)	25.11% ( 0.28)	29.2% ( -0.23)

Both teams to score 54.85% (

-1.06)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

51.67% (

-1.33)

48.33% (

1.33)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

29.52% (

-1.23)

70.47% (

1.23)

Italy Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.82% (

-0.57)

21.18% (

0.57)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

45.95% (

-0.89)

54.05% (

0.89)

France Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.58% (

-0.84)

30.42% (

0.84)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.38% (

-1.01)

66.62% (

1.01)

Score Analysis

Italy 45.69%

France 29.2%

Draw 25.11%

Italy	Draw	France
1-0 @ 10% ( 0.37) 2-1 @ 9.24% ( -0.03) 2-0 @ 7.76% ( 0.16) 3-1 @ 4.78% ( -0.1) 3-0 @ 4.02% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.84% ( -0.13) 4-1 @ 1.85% ( -0.07) 4-0 @ 1.56% ( -0.02) 4-2 @ 1.1% ( -0.07) Other @ 2.54% Total : 45.69%	1-1 @ 11.9% ( 0.18) 0-0 @ 6.44% ( 0.35) 2-2 @ 5.5% ( -0.15) 3-3 @ 1.13% ( -0.08) Other @ 0.14% Total : 25.11%	0-1 @ 7.67% ( 0.24) 1-2 @ 7.08% ( -0.06) 0-2 @ 4.56% ( 0.04) 1-3 @ 2.81% ( -0.09) 2-3 @ 2.18% ( -0.11) 0-3 @ 1.81% ( -0.03) Other @ 3.09% Total : 29.2%