SM
| Current Group I Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Romania | 10 | 11 | 22 |
| 2 | Switzerland | 10 | 11 | 17 |
| 3 | Israel | 10 | 0 | 15 |
| 4 | Belarus | 10 | -5 | 12 |
| 5 | Kosovo | 10 | 0 | 11 |
| 6 | Andorra | 10 | -17 | 2 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Italy win with a probability of 38.99%. A win for Israel had a probability of 34.59% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Italy win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.43%) and 0-2 (6.75%). The likeliest Israel win was 1-0 (9.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.56%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Italy would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Israel | Draw | Italy |
34.59% ( 0.05) | 26.42% ( 0.22) | 38.99% ( -0.27) |
| Both teams to score 52.65% ( -0.71) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.89% ( -0.91) | 52.1% ( 0.9) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.17% ( -0.79) | 73.82% ( 0.78) |
| Israel Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.29% ( -0.41) | 28.71% ( 0.4) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.46% ( -0.51) | 64.53% ( 0.51) |
| Italy Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.85% ( -0.57) | 26.14% ( 0.56) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.78% ( -0.76) | 61.21% ( 0.76) |
| Score Analysis |
| Israel | Draw | Italy |
| 1-0 @ 9.37% ( 0.23) 2-1 @ 7.84% ( -0.02)2-0 @ 5.84% ( 0.08)3-1 @ 3.26% ( -0.05)3-0 @ 2.43% ( 0)3-2 @ 2.19% ( -0.07)4-1 @ 1.02% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.64% Total : 34.59% | 1-1 @ 12.56% ( 0.11) 0-0 @ 7.5% ( 0.26)2-2 @ 5.26% ( -0.1)3-3 @ 0.98% ( -0.05)Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.41% | 0-1 @ 10.06% ( 0.19) 1-2 @ 8.43% ( -0.06)0-2 @ 6.75% ( 0.03)1-3 @ 3.77% ( -0.09)0-3 @ 3.02% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 2.35% ( -0.08)1-4 @ 1.26% ( -0.05)0-4 @ 1.01% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.32% Total : 38.98% |
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