Both sides caused problems for one another the last time that they locked horns three months ago, and another closely-fought contest is to be expected on Thursday. Poland will fancy their chances with Lewandowski leading the line, but we can see Netherlands securing a slender victory, which could be enough to seal their place in the Nations League semi-finals if Belgium fail to beat Wales. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Netherlands win with a probability of 49.7%. A win for Poland had a probability of 26.76% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Netherlands win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.98%) and 0-2 (7.84%). The likeliest Poland win was 2-1 (6.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.96%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Netherlands would win this match.

Result
Poland	Draw	Netherlands
26.76% ( 0.07)	23.55% ( -0.17)	49.7% ( 0.1)

Both teams to score 58.22% (

0.65)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

56.96% (

0.82)

43.04% (

-0.82)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

34.56% (

0.81)

65.44% (

-0.81)

Poland Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.52% (

0.48)

29.48% (

-0.48)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.52% (

0.59)

65.48% (

-0.59)

Netherlands Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.56% (

0.35)

17.44% (

-0.35)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

52.1% (

0.61)

47.9% (

-0.6)

Score Analysis

Poland 26.76%

Netherlands 49.7%

Draw 23.54%

Poland	Draw	Netherlands
2-1 @ 6.7% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 6.28% ( -0.14) 2-0 @ 3.84% ( -0.04) 3-1 @ 2.73% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 2.38% ( 0.06) 3-0 @ 1.56% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.27% Total : 26.76%	1-1 @ 10.96% ( -0.13) 2-2 @ 5.85% ( 0.08) 0-0 @ 5.14% ( -0.19) 3-3 @ 1.39% ( 0.05) Other @ 0.2% Total : 23.54%	1-2 @ 9.58% ( 0) 0-1 @ 8.98% ( -0.22) 0-2 @ 7.84% ( -0.11) 1-3 @ 5.57% ( 0.06) 0-3 @ 4.56% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 3.41% ( 0.08) 1-4 @ 2.43% ( 0.06) 0-4 @ 1.99% ( 0.02) 2-4 @ 1.49% ( 0.05) Other @ 3.85% Total : 49.7%