SM
| Current Group H Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Slovenia | 10 | 11 | 22 |
| 2 | Denmark | 10 | 9 | 22 |
| 3 | Finland | 10 | 8 | 18 |
| 4 | Kazakhstan | 10 | 4 | 18 |
| 5 | Northern Ireland | 10 | -4 | 9 |
| 6 | San Marino | 10 | -28 | 0 |
| Current Group J Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Portugal | 10 | 34 | 30 |
| 2 | Slovakia | 10 | 9 | 22 |
| 3 | Luxembourg | 10 | -6 | 17 |
| 4 | Iceland | 10 | 1 | 10 |
| 5 | Bosnia-Herzegovina | 10 | -11 | 9 |
| 6 | Liechtenstein | 10 | -27 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a San Marino win with a probability of 41.83%. A win for Liechtenstein had a probability of 32.26% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a San Marino win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.81%) and 2-0 (7.19%). The likeliest Liechtenstein win was 0-1 (8.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.31%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for San Marino in this match.
| Result | ||
| San Marino | Draw | Liechtenstein |
41.83% ( -0.27) | 25.9% ( -0.12) | 32.26% ( 0.39) |
| Both teams to score 53.74% ( 0.54) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.55% ( 0.62) | 50.44% ( -0.62) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.62% ( 0.55) | 72.38% ( -0.55) |
| San Marino Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.1% ( 0.14) | 23.9% ( -0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.89% ( 0.2) | 58.11% ( -0.2) |
| Liechtenstein Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.62% ( 0.57) | 29.38% ( -0.57) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.63% ( 0.69) | 65.37% ( -0.69) |
| Score Analysis |
| San Marino | Draw | Liechtenstein |
| 1-0 @ 10.05% ( -0.21) 2-1 @ 8.81% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 7.19% ( -0.12)3-1 @ 4.2% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 3.43% ( -0.04)3-2 @ 2.57% ( 0.05)4-1 @ 1.5% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 1.23% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 0.92% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.92% Total : 41.83% | 1-1 @ 12.31% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 7.02% ( -0.18)2-2 @ 5.4% ( 0.08)3-3 @ 1.05% ( 0.04)Other @ 0.12% Total : 25.9% | 0-1 @ 8.6% ( -0.08) 1-2 @ 7.54% ( 0.08)0-2 @ 5.27% ( 0.04)1-3 @ 3.08% ( 0.08)2-3 @ 2.2% ( 0.07)0-3 @ 2.15% ( 0.05)1-4 @ 0.94% ( 0.04)Other @ 2.48% Total : 32.26% |
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