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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stoke City Under-21s win with a probability of 59.98%. A win for Derby County Under-21s had a probability of 20.61% and a draw had a probability of 19.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stoke City Under-21s win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.22%) and 3-1 (7.22%). The likeliest Derby County Under-21s win was 1-2 (5.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.14%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Stoke City Under-21s would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Stoke City Under-21s | Draw | Derby County Under-21s |
59.98% ( -0) | 19.41% ( 0.02) | 20.61% ( -0.02) |
| Both teams to score 65.5% ( -0.09) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 69.85% ( -0.11) | 30.15% ( 0.11) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 48.63% ( -0.13) | 51.37% ( 0.13) |
| Stoke City Under-21s Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 90.05% ( -0.03) | 9.95% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 67.08% ( -0.08) | 32.91% ( 0.07) |
| Derby County Under-21s Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.74% ( -0.08) | 27.26% ( 0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.31% ( -0.1) | 62.69% ( 0.1) |
| Score Analysis |
| Stoke City Under-21s | Draw | Derby County Under-21s |
| 2-1 @ 9.39% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 7.22% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 7.22% ( -0)1-0 @ 6.26% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 5.55% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 4.69% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 4.17% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 3.2% ( 0)4-2 @ 2.71% ( -0.01)5-1 @ 1.92% ( -0.01)5-0 @ 1.48% ( -0)5-2 @ 1.25% ( -0.01)4-3 @ 1.17% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.75% Total : 59.98% | 1-1 @ 8.14% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 6.1% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 2.71% ( 0.02)3-3 @ 2.03% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.43% Total : 19.41% | 1-2 @ 5.29% ( 0) 0-1 @ 3.53% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 2.64% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 2.29% ( 0)1-3 @ 2.29% ( -0)0-3 @ 0.99% Other @ 3.57% Total : 20.61% |
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