Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City Under-23s win with a probability of 57.78%. A win for Leeds United Under-23s had a probability of 21.42% and a draw had a probability of 20.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City Under-23s win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.07%) and 0-1 (7.7%). The likeliest Leeds United Under-23s win was 2-1 (5.62%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.3%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Manchester City Under-23s would win this match.
