Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City Under-23s win with a probability of 58.23%. A win for Arsenal Under-23s had a probability of 21.22% and a draw had a probability of 20.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City Under-23s win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.95%) and 0-1 (7.45%). The likeliest Arsenal Under-23s win was 2-1 (5.56%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.1%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood.
