Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a West Ham United Under-23s win with a probability of 69.05%. A draw had a probability of 17% and a win for Derby County Under-23s had a probability of 13.99%.
The most likely scoreline for a West Ham United Under-23s win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.83%) and 3-1 (7.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.44%), while for a Derby County Under-23s win it was 1-2 (3.95%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that West Ham United Under-23s would win this match.
