Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brighton & Hove Albion Under-23s win with a probability of 55.59%. A win for Derby County Under-23s had a probability of 24.09% and a draw had a probability of 20.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Brighton & Hove Albion Under-23s win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (6.78%) and 2-0 (6.56%). The likeliest Derby County Under-23s win was 1-2 (5.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.38%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Brighton & Hove Albion Under-23s would win this match.
