SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Southampton Under-21s win with a probability of 79.34%. A draw had a probability of 12.5% and a win for Derby County Under-21s had a probability of 8.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Southampton Under-21s win was 3-0 with a probability of 8.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.88%) and 3-1 (8.21%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.39%), while for a Derby County Under-21s win it was 1-2 (2.48%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 3-0 win for Southampton Under-21s in this match.
| Result | ||
| Southampton Under-21s | Draw | Derby County Under-21s |
79.34% ( -0) | 12.46% | 8.2% ( 0) |
| Both teams to score 57.14% ( 0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 75.3% ( 0) | 24.7% ( -0) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 55.48% ( 0) | 44.52% ( -0) |
| Southampton Under-21s Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 95.13% | 4.87% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 80.41% ( -0) | 19.58% ( -0) |
| Derby County Under-21s Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.07% ( 0) | 39.93% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 23.41% ( 0) | 76.59% ( -0) |
| Score Analysis |
| Southampton Under-21s | Draw | Derby County Under-21s |
| 3-0 @ 8.95% ( -0) 2-0 @ 8.88% ( -0)3-1 @ 8.21% 2-1 @ 8.15% 4-0 @ 6.76% ( -0)4-1 @ 6.21% 1-0 @ 5.88% ( -0)5-0 @ 4.09% 3-2 @ 3.77% 5-1 @ 3.75% 4-2 @ 2.85% 6-0 @ 2.06% ( -0)6-1 @ 1.89% ( 0)5-2 @ 1.72% ( 0)Other @ 6.19% Total : 79.34% | 1-1 @ 5.39% 2-2 @ 3.74% 0-0 @ 1.94% 3-3 @ 1.15% Other @ 0.22% Total : 12.46% | 1-2 @ 2.48% ( 0) 0-1 @ 1.78% ( -0)2-3 @ 1.15% Other @ 2.8% Total : 8.2% |
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