SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nottingham Forest Under-21s win with a probability of 56.91%. A win for Derby County Under-21s had a probability of 21.95% and a draw had a probability of 21.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nottingham Forest Under-21s win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.09%) and 1-0 (7.88%). The likeliest Derby County Under-21s win was 1-2 (5.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.51%). The actual scoreline of 7-2 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nottingham Forest Under-21s would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Nottingham Forest Under-21s | Draw | Derby County Under-21s |
56.91% ( -0.51) | 21.13% ( 0.19) | 21.95% ( 0.32) |
| Both teams to score 61.11% ( -0.2) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 63.28% ( -0.47) | 36.72% ( 0.48) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 41.11% ( -0.52) | 58.89% ( 0.52) |
| Nottingham Forest Under-21s Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.18% ( -0.3) | 12.82% ( 0.3) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 60.85% ( -0.62) | 39.15% ( 0.62) |
| Derby County Under-21s Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.09% ( 0.01) | 29.91% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.99% ( 0.02) | 66.01% ( -0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Nottingham Forest Under-21s | Draw | Derby County Under-21s |
| 2-1 @ 9.76% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 8.09% ( 0)1-0 @ 7.88% ( 0.09)3-1 @ 6.69% ( -0.07)3-0 @ 5.54% ( -0.06)3-2 @ 4.04% ( -0.04)4-1 @ 3.43% ( -0.08)4-0 @ 2.85% ( -0.07)4-2 @ 2.07% ( -0.05)5-1 @ 1.41% ( -0.05)5-0 @ 1.17% ( -0.04)Other @ 3.99% Total : 56.91% | 1-1 @ 9.51% ( 0.12) 2-2 @ 5.89% ( 0.01)0-0 @ 3.83% ( 0.09)3-3 @ 1.62% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.28% Total : 21.13% | 1-2 @ 5.74% ( 0.07) 0-1 @ 4.63% ( 0.11)0-2 @ 2.79% ( 0.07)2-3 @ 2.37% ( 0)1-3 @ 2.31% ( 0.03)0-3 @ 1.12% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.99% Total : 21.95% |
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